Bitcoin’s Two Markets: ETF Sellers Flee While Treasuries and a Central Bank Buy the Dip

Bitcoin spent the weekend camped just above $75,000 after one of its roughest weeks of the year. It traded near $75,800 on Saturday, November 7, after closing Friday at $75,792 and touching $74,762 during the session — its lowest level since August 21. The price is now roughly 40% below the $126,156 all-time high set on October 6, 2025, and the wider crypto market tells the same story of caution: total market capitalisation sits near $2.64 trillion and the Fear & Greed Index reads 41, firmly in “Fear” territory.

The week’s damage came in two waves. On Thursday, a sharp sell-off in US tech stocks — the Nasdaq fell 5.5% — dragged crypto down with it and wiped out more than $1.26 billion in leveraged positions in 24 hours, about $1.1 billion of them bullish bets. Then Friday delivered a jobs report that was, for risk assets, too good: US employers added 165,000 jobs in October against roughly 65,000 expected, unemployment dipped to 4.1%, and traders lifted the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike from about 67% to roughly 77–80%. Stocks bounced on dip-buying. Crypto did not join them.

The selling was concentrated in one place: US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Funds lost $411.9 million on Friday alone, after $430.2 million the day before, taking the week’s total to about $1.28 billion across the five sessions from November 2 to 6. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for nearly the whole outflow, roughly $1.21 billion. Yet the other side of the market barely blinked. Corporate treasury firm Strive bought 15,124 BTC during October, lifting its holdings to 43,124 BTC, according to its third-quarter results filed with the SEC. Kazakhstan’s central bank announced a $90 million allocation to Bitcoin-focused ETFs, alongside $100 million across crypto funds, at a conference in Almaty on November 5. And wealth platform LPL Financial held $261 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs at the end of September.

That split is the real story of this sell-off. Galaxy’s analysis of regulatory filings found that between September 2025 and June 2026, nine large macro and multi-strategy trading desks cut about 68,000 BTC of ETF exposure — more than the net decline across all 2,200 filers, meaning every other filer, in aggregate, added. In other words, tactical money is leaving while patient money is arriving. The price action reflects the same tension: Bitcoin is sitting almost exactly on its 50-week average near $75,743, just below its rising 200-day average of about $76,500. Friday’s low of $74,762 is the first line of defence, with the 200-day simple average near $73,200 below it; traders cited by Yahoo Finance see $73,000 and $68,000 as the next downside targets, and say reclaiming $80,000 is what would signal renewed strength.

What to watch next: Sunday’s weekly close, which decides whether this week reads as a shakeout or a breakdown; a single ETF inflow day after a week of heavy redemptions, the first sign sellers may be tiring; and Tuesday’s October inflation report, followed by producer prices on November 13, ahead of the Fed’s December 8–9 decision. The altcoin picture is mixed — Ether near $2,240, Solana pinned near $90 and XRP the weakest large cap at $1.17 — while privacy coins diverged sharply: Monero rose 5.4% on the week to about $621. For readers trying to make sense of these swings, our free forex course explains how rate expectations move markets, and the forex tools page has calculators for sizing positions in volatile conditions. (Not financial advice.)